From: Published:2014/3/28 11:52:33
European leaders are seizing on Chinese President Xi Jinping's inaugural trip to Europe to enlist his support over the crisis in Ukraine, but so far the Chinese leader has given no sign the diplomacy will succeed in driving a wedge between China and its strategic partner Russia.
Mr. Xi is officially on a mission to deepen trade relations with the European Union. In China, however, European diplomats see a country that could put pressure on the Kremlin. The country is Russia's largest trading partner and a frequent supporter on the world stage.
On Friday, Mr. Xi travels to Berlin for a three-day trip before wrapping up his European tour in Brussels. In Paris this week, the Chinese leader signed deals finalizing multibillion euro accords with France's aerospace, automotive and agricultural industries while steering clear of Ukraine.
In a Thursday address commemorating the 50th anniversary of China's diplomatic ties with France, Mr. Xi conveyed his views of foreign policy through grand pronouncements, quoting Napoleon Bonaparte's warning that China was a "sleeping lion" that would shake the world if awakened.
"Today, the lion is awake, and it's peaceful, nice and civilized," Mr. Xi said.
From the start, however, the Ukraine crisis has loomed large over Mr. Xi's closely watched visit. The first stop on his tour—a summit on nuclear security in The Hague—was immediately overshadowed by diplomatic disputes over Crimea's annexation by Russia.
European policy makers have sought to cast as a diplomatic victory China's decision to abstain from a United Nations Security Council vote condemning a referendum that cleared the way for Crimea to break away from Ukraine and join Russia.
"At this moment, we have really appreciated the position of China on the issue of Ukraine," French President François Hollande told Mr. Xi during a Wednesday meeting in the Élysée Palace. Mr. Xi looked on stone-faced as Mr. Hollande praised him for "favoring dialogue while standing firm on the principle of territorial integrity."
Privately, European diplomats concede that China's relationship with Russia remains solid. China has often joined Russia in vetoing Security Council resolutions on issues like the civil war in Syria. In addition, Beijing's abstention vote on Crimea was less a departure from Moscow than a move consistent with Beijing's long-standing rejection of any meddling by foreign countries in its own domestic affairs, said a senior French diplomat.
Mr. Xi is walking a tightrope as he weighs China's partnership with Russia against its growing economic ties with the West.
Diplomats and analysts say Mr. Xi is keen to ensure good relations with the EU and the U.S.--its largest trading partners and favored destinations for outbound investment. China's priority is to promote its commercial interests, and polish the international image of Mr. Xi, its new President.
Even Europe's pursuit of his support on Ukraine "helps portray Xi as a world leader," said Rod Wye, an analyst with Chatham House. "The Chinese would not be unhappy to see him at the heart of discussion over difficult international issues."
But Beijing also wants to maintain strong ties with Moscow, which it sees as an important source of energy and arms, and a bulwark against Western influence around the world.
The Chinese government is also wary of appearing to back a secessionist movement because of its own long-running problems with separatists in China's far western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang, analysts and diplomats say.
In public, as in private, Beijing's position on Crimea has therefore been noncommittal: It has repeatedly said that the situation in Ukraine is historically complicated, and called for a political solution to the crisis. But it hasn't tried to play an active role in brokering that solution.
"China has always respected every country's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity," Hong Lei, a foreign ministry spokesman, told a regular news briefing on Thursday.
The Crimea issue may resurface when Mr. Xi meets Angela Merkel in Berlin. The German Chancellor has taken the most prominent role among European leaders in diplomacy to try to counter the Kremlin's moves.
Berlin officials note that China has large economic interests in Ukraine and is sensitive to territorial disputes. But they also took notice that Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked China in a speech to parliament for "taking into account the full historical and political context" of the situation in Ukraine.
As a result, some German officials see the idea that China could take the West's side in the conflict as wishful thinking. But as long as China maintains a publicly neutral stance on the Ukraine crisis, European diplomats are likely to lean on China to make sure that international talks such as those around Iran's nuclear program don't get derailed by the conflict.
"China will try to steer a middle course" on Ukraine, said Gudrun Wacker, an Asia specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. "The conversation will be about what has to happen to make sure that Russia doesn't become an obstacle in these other negotiations."
While the three-day trip to Germany is unlikely to produce diplomatic breakthroughs, it could strengthen economic ties.
Germany is China's largest European trading partner, with $162 billion in imports and exports last year, according to the German Embassy in Beijing. Auto giant Volkswagen AG, which sold more than 3 million vehicles in China last year through its joint ventures there, is helping to organize a friendly youth soccer match on Saturday in Berlin's Olympic Stadium that Mr. Xi will attend. On Sunday, he will fly to Brussels.
—Jeremy Page and Bertrand Benoit contributed to this article.